The year ahead in Scottish politics: How rural legislation could shape the next General Election
In this blog, our Press & Public Affairs Manager Cameron Gillies takes a look at the year ahead in Scottish politics, with a focus on how upcoming rural legislation could be pivotal to the fortunes of parties vying for seats across rural Scotland.
With Rishi Sunak hinting at an autumn election and the Scottish Parliament getting ready to return to a packed timetable of legislation, 2024 is going to be a hectic year in Scottish politics - particularly in rural affairs.
We are now more than halfway through the Holyrood electoral cycle and MSPs are wading through a raft of Bills that will fundamentally change the way our countryside is managed.
This legislation will create new rules for managing grouse moors; controlling wildlife; managing, selling and transferring land holdings; agricultural and rural community payments; private rental housing; tourism; and nature restoration.
Humza Yousaf’s government maintains a parliamentary majority through the Bute House Agreement that will - short of an unlikely rebellion - ensure his programme of rural legislation can pass without a hitch. However, opposition parties will be keen to take advantage of the perceived anti-rural agenda they claim pervades the SNP-Green coalition and their plans for rural Scotland.
In the context of this year’s general election, this could be pivotal. Getting these Bills right is, first and foremost, a matter of supporting our rural communities. But for Humza Yousaf’s party, it is also an invaluable opportunity to win precious votes in this year’s general election and avoid the catastrophe that commentators are forecasting.
For opposition parties eyeing up votes in rural constituencies, these Bills are also an opportunity for them to reinforce their messaging around the SNP leaving behind rural areas of Scotland in favour its central belt heartlands.
The incumbent Scottish Government's approach to these issues may not change as a result of the outcome the General Election, but Scottish voters invariably factor both reserved and devolved matters in to their thinking at the ballot box.
As Labour continues to enjoy a substantial lead over the Conservatives South of the Border, they are also looking to win back dozens of seats from the SNP here in Scotland. In the central belt, the SNP and Labour will be the main competitors. In rural Scotland, the SNP vote is predicted to split, with many traditional SNP supporters touted to turn to Alba, the Greens or Labour. This would open the door for the Conservatives and Lib Dems to take advantage and win even more seats from them, spelling disaster for the party that, for the best part of a decade, seemed electorally untouchable.
Short of an unprecedented Conservative turnaround on polling day, Keir Starmer will most likely be Prime Minister by the end of 2024. However, his victory in Scotland would place enormous pressure on the First Minister, forcing him in to a position where his leadership may be called in to question.
Losing seats as projected to Labour would be one thing, but losing ground on the Conservatives and Lib Dems would be even tougher for the First Minister to survive.
With the Conservatives targeting seats across the Borders, Ayrshire, Aberdeenshire, and Perthshire and the Lib Dems looking to reclaim the Highlands, the rural vote will be key to the SNP’s fortunes. Their perceived lack of understanding of rural priorities has already seen some polls suggest they stand to lose out in these areas.
On the other hand, upcoming legislation represents an opportunity to win the trust of rural voters. That is why it is absolutely essential that the SNP really listen to what rural voters want to see in these Bills. For the First Minister, they could be his downfall, or his saviour.
It is not inconceivable that rural losses for the SNP could lead to more than one election taking place in Scotland in 2024.
But electoral conjecture aside, this year will be incredibly important for rural Scotland.
We need to ensure that the Wildlife Management Bill enables sustainable grouse moor management to continue.
We must help to shape a new Agriculture Bill that delivers for Scotland’s food security, for our climate, and for our rural communities.
We must not allow the new Land Reform Bill to drive away investment and damage our rural economy.
And we must see a Nature Bill drafted to bring everyone concerned with these issues on side.
For all of the legislation that rural Scotland will be facing this year, we want to make sure that it helps rural Scotland to thrive, for nature, people and place.
Each one of these Bills will require a huge amount of work to get right, whilst the consequences of getting them wrong will be catastrophic for our rural communities.
SLE will be working hard to help politicians make good legislation for rural Scotland. Our role in providing evidence, constructing the arguments to back up that evidence, and guiding the conversation around these issues will enable us to ensure the voice of rural Scotland is heard.
We are listening to rural communities and we understand the challenges they face. It is absolutely vital that our politicians do too.
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